Monday, October 16, 2006
BCS Standings
So as you probably read, I calculated the BCS Standings last week-- a week before they came out-- just to see where things were, which after the Auburn loss, doesn't mean quite as much. I wrote a lengthy note about 6 hours ago before an Ops Man review, and Mozilla crashed-- and that never happens. I downloaded the new beta version (with spell-check in all text forms, including this one), and it has crashed 4 times in a little over a week. Anyway, I will try and re-create as much of the note as I can.
So, we're #6 in the BCS. It could be a LOT worse. Now, all we need is a few small miracles. Michigan will beat Ohio St in my opinion. USC will lose 2 out of the Notre Dame, Oregon, California, and UCLA gauntlet. Auburn can't make it to the SEC Championship unless Arkansas loses to Tennessee AND LSU, which won't happen with that Arkansas running game, and the polls won't rank a one-loss Auburn team ahead of a 1 loss SEC Champion. West Virginia will get screwed b/c of their weak schedule.
But that's all qualitative. Looking at the numbers, well, first .you have to understand how the new BCS works. In a much, much simplified version of the formula, they take 1/3 of the Coaches Poll, 1/3 of the Harris Poll, and 1/3 of an average of 6 computer polls. In reality, there are 6 computers, but they drop the highest and lowest ranking to reduce the outlier effect. Unfortunately the Associated Press ranks us higher, but they refused last year to allow the BCS to use their poll anymore, mostly due to internal politics, and mostly regarding the lack of a playoff system. So let's look at the computer polls.
The best possible score would be 100%, meaning each of the four polls ranked you as #1. A score of 96% would mean each of the four counted polls ranked you #2, or missing 4 possible points from being perfect. Each computer uses a different algorithm to calculate. Some favor strength of schedule, while some favor margin of victory. You can view all of the polls at www.cfrc.com. Now, in a very surprising move, USC is ranked #1 in all of the polls, and thus has a perfect 100%. Michigan is #2 in each of the polls, and has a 96%. Ohio St, consensus #1 in the AP, Coaches, and Harris poll, is #3 in each poll, giving them 92%. All three are very close, and specific wins, or losses of teams they beat, could shift those numbers around.
Florida has a 87%. This means that they were ranked 4,4,4, and 5. In case you were curious, we are #4 and #9 in the two polls who were dropped to get to the median. We'll most certainly pass the loser of the Ohio St/Michigan game, if for no other reason then it is played November 18th, with little to no chance for a rebound. Assuming USC loses, that puts us at #2 in the computers, and gives us 33% of a score of 96%. It's conceivable then that while we are #3 or #4 in the Coaches/Harris poll, we could vault the #2 team (so long as it is split between the 2 polls) into the BCS Championship.
It'll be interesting, but it all assumes that we win out. I'm not too afraid of going into Jax, I am a little afraid of going into Doak Campbell especially with FSU having no BCS hopes b/c they will be gunning to take us down, and I am actually most scared of playing Spurrier's ball club even though it's at home. Call me crazy, but I never will doubt his motivational abilities.
I've been very interested in the BCS lately. I'm even considering writing my public finance policy paper on the economic implications of a playoff system versus the current bowl system on the 117 member institutions of the NCAA Division 1 football program. We'll see.
About that motivational thing ...
I am buying Vemma with the hopes that it supplements the working out I will now do that it is 1) colder out, 2) have an mp3 player, and 3) have a dog to run with.
Sasha, what do you need for International Week? I am yours, within reason.
Vi, we have too many memories to pick just one, but if I must ... no, I can't!
Telecom and Ops Man tests on Thursday ... but I got an A on my Public Finance mid-term. Oh, yeah, and I am changing my major, again. For you WCBA trivia buffs, Economics is the only major that you can complete in one semester =
So, we're #6 in the BCS. It could be a LOT worse. Now, all we need is a few small miracles. Michigan will beat Ohio St in my opinion. USC will lose 2 out of the Notre Dame, Oregon, California, and UCLA gauntlet. Auburn can't make it to the SEC Championship unless Arkansas loses to Tennessee AND LSU, which won't happen with that Arkansas running game, and the polls won't rank a one-loss Auburn team ahead of a 1 loss SEC Champion. West Virginia will get screwed b/c of their weak schedule.
But that's all qualitative. Looking at the numbers, well, first .you have to understand how the new BCS works. In a much, much simplified version of the formula, they take 1/3 of the Coaches Poll, 1/3 of the Harris Poll, and 1/3 of an average of 6 computer polls. In reality, there are 6 computers, but they drop the highest and lowest ranking to reduce the outlier effect. Unfortunately the Associated Press ranks us higher, but they refused last year to allow the BCS to use their poll anymore, mostly due to internal politics, and mostly regarding the lack of a playoff system. So let's look at the computer polls.
The best possible score would be 100%, meaning each of the four polls ranked you as #1. A score of 96% would mean each of the four counted polls ranked you #2, or missing 4 possible points from being perfect. Each computer uses a different algorithm to calculate. Some favor strength of schedule, while some favor margin of victory. You can view all of the polls at www.cfrc.com. Now, in a very surprising move, USC is ranked #1 in all of the polls, and thus has a perfect 100%. Michigan is #2 in each of the polls, and has a 96%. Ohio St, consensus #1 in the AP, Coaches, and Harris poll, is #3 in each poll, giving them 92%. All three are very close, and specific wins, or losses of teams they beat, could shift those numbers around.
Florida has a 87%. This means that they were ranked 4,4,4, and 5. In case you were curious, we are #4 and #9 in the two polls who were dropped to get to the median. We'll most certainly pass the loser of the Ohio St/Michigan game, if for no other reason then it is played November 18th, with little to no chance for a rebound. Assuming USC loses, that puts us at #2 in the computers, and gives us 33% of a score of 96%. It's conceivable then that while we are #3 or #4 in the Coaches/Harris poll, we could vault the #2 team (so long as it is split between the 2 polls) into the BCS Championship.
It'll be interesting, but it all assumes that we win out. I'm not too afraid of going into Jax, I am a little afraid of going into Doak Campbell especially with FSU having no BCS hopes b/c they will be gunning to take us down, and I am actually most scared of playing Spurrier's ball club even though it's at home. Call me crazy, but I never will doubt his motivational abilities.
I've been very interested in the BCS lately. I'm even considering writing my public finance policy paper on the economic implications of a playoff system versus the current bowl system on the 117 member institutions of the NCAA Division 1 football program. We'll see.
About that motivational thing ...
I am buying Vemma with the hopes that it supplements the working out I will now do that it is 1) colder out, 2) have an mp3 player, and 3) have a dog to run with.
Sasha, what do you need for International Week? I am yours, within reason.
Vi, we have too many memories to pick just one, but if I must ... no, I can't!
Telecom and Ops Man tests on Thursday ... but I got an A on my Public Finance mid-term. Oh, yeah, and I am changing my major, again. For you WCBA trivia buffs, Economics is the only major that you can complete in one semester =
# posted by David Meyrowitz @ 10:57 PM 
